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Prediction of Maximum Pavement Surface Temperature Using Maximum Air Temperature & Latitude

Debela Daba; Dr. Habtamu Melese

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  "DOI": "10.20372/nadre:1557227730.16", 
  "abstract": "Marshall Mix design was developed for the hottest pavement surface temperature of USA, which is 60-degree Celsius. This design mechanism is very dominant in our country. It was directly adopted without any modification. The research aims to develop a prediction model which will be employed to modify Marshall Mix design method for Ethiopian climate and incorporate maximum pavement surface temperature. In order to do so, ten years historical air temperature of Ethiopia, taken from National Metrology Agency which was used to determine the hottest month for onsite measurement of 24 towns. For each town actual maximum pavement surface temperature was measured from August 2016- February 2018, using Nano sensor/ radiator thermometer. The countries climate was classified in to four climatic regions for the purpose of this research. For each region, a representative town is incorporated on the study. Based on site measurement and maximum air temperature with the associated latitude, Multivariate Regression Model was selected. To select the model R-squared value method, excel analysis of scatter plots and collinearity of the explanatory variables was checked. All the inputs were provided to STATA SE-13 statistical software and model developed. After the model was developed by all the 24 towns\u2019 data, it was validated and cross validated by dividing the data in to 5 folds in order to make it applicable for all scenarios. The model was further elaborated in laboratory case study, for hottest town of Samara, Afar region capital. Mix design was prepared at 60\u2103, which is the standard specimen heating temperature and at 75\u2103, which is the actual maximum pavement surface temperature of Samara town. The mix that was prepared at 60\u2103 , found to fulfill all the criteria\u2019s of Marshall Mix design outlined by Asphalt Institute for heavy Traffics. Whereas, at the 75\u2103, fails to do so. Therefore, mix design should be conducted at the place maximum pavement surface Temperature rather than conducting at the standard 60degree Celsius", 
  "author": [
      "family": "Debela Daba", 
      "given": ""
      "family": "Dr. Habtamu Melese", 
      "given": ""
  "id": "3624", 
  "issued": {
    "date-parts": [
  "language": "eng", 
  "note": "Presented on 13 03 2018", 
  "publisher_place": "ADDIS ABABA ", 
  "title": "Prediction of Maximum Pavement Surface Temperature Using Maximum Air Temperature & Latitude", 
  "type": "chapter"
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